Modelling the U.S. sovereign credit rating

The Real Effects of Sovereign Credit Rating Downgrades∗

We study the effect of sovereign credit rating downgrades on firm investment and financial policy. We identify causal effects by exploiting the effect of sovereign downgrades on corporate ratings that is due to sovereign ceiling policies followed by rating agencies. We find that sovereign downgrades lead to greater decreases in investment and leverage of firms that are at the sovereign rating b...

Municipal credit rating modelling by neural networks

Modelling credit rating by fuzzy adaptive network

Human judgment plays an important role in the rating of enterprise financial conditions. The recently developed fuzzy adaptive network (FAN), which can handle systems whose behaviour is influenced by human judgment, appears to be ideally suited for the modelling of this credit rating problem. In this paper, FAN is used to model the credit rating of small financial enterprises. To illustrate the...

Sovereign Credit Risk Measures

This paper focuses on sovereign credit risk meaning a hot topic related to the current Eurozone crisis. In the light of the recent financial crisis, market perception of the creditworthiness of individual sovereigns has changed significantly. Before the outbreak of the financial crisis, market participants did not differentiate between credit risk born by individual states despite different lev...

On sovereign credit migration: A study of alternative estimators and rating dynamics

This paper investigates the finite-sample behaviour of sovereign credit migration estimators and analyzes the properties of the rating process. Through bootstrap simulations, we compare a discrete multinomial estimator and two continuous hazard rate methods which differ in that one neglects time heterogeneity in the rating process whereas the other accounts for it. The study is based on Moody’s...